scholast

Some of my colleagues asked me to express my opinion on what is actually happening in the Ukraine and Russia. So I am trying.

In the Ukraine, the anti-criminal revolution ousted the corrupted dictator and his close circle. For the similar regime in Russia, it was a very dangerous precedent, so the motivation to punish for that, to turn it into an obviously bad example, was very strong.

To this time, Putin's popularity was very low. This was clearly demonstrated by the Moscow mayor election, where the anti-Putin candidate Navalny officially got 27%, with all unfairness, fraudulence, and administrative pressure of that election. Thus, the authoritarian regime badly needed a way to boost the popularity of the dictator. Together with the previous point, this made a very dangerous situation for the dictatorship, its life or death case.

The solution employed was actually traditional: to excite the patriotic enthusiasm, starting the aggression against Ukraine, using all possible means: direct annexation, hybrid war, Goebbels propaganda and megatons of blatant lies at all levels.

So far, they succeeded: the patriotic ecstasy was exited and boosted the regime's and Putin's popularity to the level of the beginning of his presidency. It is clear though that this jinn works only when properly fed: it requires permanent tension, provocation, terrorist acts and a danger of big war at least. Otherwise, peace if established, would lead people to a sober understanding of the high cost of the aggression, xenophobia, and isolation. Thus, by all means, the regime will never go to peace; it can be stopped by force only. Geneva-2, 3, 33 etc would be even worse than meaningless. Talks with a gangster as though with a gentleman would benefit only the gangster. The gangster can be stopped by force only.

Putin's regime is very dangerous not only to the Ukraine--it is a danger to the world. If not stopped at Ukraine, it will start the same game at Baltic and Eastern European countries, using similar methods for the same reason.

The Crimea occupation destroys the whole convention of the nuclear proliferation. After crash of the USSR, the Ukraine gave all its nuclear power to Russia, in exchange to the guaranties of the Ukraine territorial integrity. This was guarantied by the Russia, USSR and UK, who signed the related Budapest Memorandum. Now for the whole world it is clear that these guarantees meant nothing, convincing many countries that only their own nuclear bombs can save them from aggression and annexation of their territory.

The heavy damage is being done to the Russia itself: the country is moving fast towards a totalitarian state and full international isolation, with all obvious consequences. Keeping in mind the high popularity of this patriotic line, I do not see any other resolution of this spiritual, and thus political, sickness except a catastrophe for the whole country. That is a usual way how history gives its lessons for those who lost their mind.

Due to hard dictatorship in Russia, those minority people who do not share the patriotic ecstasy are scared to rise their voice against the aggression, preferring to keep silence. This is true for the Russian scientists as well: they either share the patriotic enthusiasm or keep silence. Those of us, who are citizens of the Western countries, like myself, can allow ourselves to tell what we really think. Sadly, I have to admit, that even among the Russian expats, the degree of patriotic hysteria is very high.